India to Get above-normal Monsoon Rainfall: IMD

Syllabus: GS1/Geophysical Phenomena; GS3/Agricultural Resources


About the Monsoon Forecast:

About IMD

– It is an agency of the Ministry of Earth Sciences.
– It is the principal agency responsible for meteorological observations, weather forecasting and seismology.
– It is also one of the six Regional Specialised Meteorological Centres of the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO).
– It releases the long range forecast in two stages in April and June.

IMD Categorisation Method of Monsoon:

– Long Period Average (LPA):  LPA of rainfall is the rainfall recorded over a particular region for a given interval (like month or season) averaged over a long period like 30 years, 50-years etc.
a. It acts as a benchmark while forecasting the quantitative rainfall for that region for a specific month or season.

Categories of Rainfall

– Large Excess: ≥60% of  LPA.
– Excess: 20% to 59% of LPA.
– Normal:  -19% to +19% of LPA.
– Deficient: -59% to -20% of LPA.
– Large Deficient:  – 99% to -60% LPA.

Predicting the Monsoon

– Monsoon season is from June to September in India as a whole, the long period average (LPA) is 88 cm and standard deviation is 9 cm (about 10% of mean value).
– Therefore, when the rainfall averaged over the country as a whole is within ±10% from its LPA or 90% to 110% of LPA, the rainfall is said to be ‘normal’ and when the rainfall is <90% of LPA it is considered to be ‘below normal’ and when it is >110% of LPA, the rainfall is said to be ‘above normal’.

Factors Influencing the Forecast

Source: TH

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